Trefis Week in Review
The Week in Review
Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.
Insights from the Week
- Down 10% This Year, Will Gen AI Tools Help Apple Stock Recover?
- Down 5% Over The Last Month, Will Strong iPhone Sales Help Apple Offset Mac Headwinds In Q1?
- After Over A 40% Rally In 2023, Will Antitrust And iPhone Issues Hurt Apple Stock?
- Up 45% Since The Beginning Of 2023, Where Is Apple Stock Headed?
- Up 34% This Year, Will Apple Stock Rally Further Following Q4 Results?
- Will New iPhones Help Apple Stock Offset A China Slump?
Technology Media & Telecom
- This Week in Software: Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and Salesforce on July 8, 2011
Microsoft officially launched the Office 365 software last week, which marked its foray into the cloud computing productivity software market which is dominated by Google and Salesforce.com …
Viacom’s film division Paramount Pictures will be launching its own animation division. This division will be focused on animation movies with budgets of up to $100 million per movie …
- Comscore Jumps on the RIM Dog Pile on July 8, 2011
Comscore just delivered a flying back elbow to RIM by releasing its U.S. smartphone operating system market share data for February to May 2011, which showed that Apple with 27% market share passed RIM’s that declined to 25% …
- Microsoft Eyes Upside if Office 365 Takes Off on July 8, 2011
With the launch of Office 365, it has a very good chance of becoming the dominant player even in the cloud based productivity software market based on initial reviews …
- New Cloud Offering Could Help SAP Reach $64 on July 8, 2011
Considering the positive initial reviews, if the Sales OnDemand application turns out to be a hit, SAP could end up with a greater market share by the end of the forecasting period …
- Android Patents Can Push Microsoft Past $27 on July 8, 2011
Microsoft Office and the Windows operating system are the greatest moneymakers for Microsoft. Android could turn out to be its next billion dollar business and one of its largest revenue generator …
- CBS Upside & Downside Scenarios to $27.50 Valuation on July 8, 2011
We believe CBS owned TV stations and CBS radio ebitda margin and cable networks ebitda margin may hold potential of rising higher than we forecast …
- RIM Looks Oversold but Here’s How to Justify it on July 8, 2011
In the scenario where BlackBerry’s gross margins decline at a faster rate to reach 20% in the long term, there could be additional 10% downside to our RIM value …
- eBay’s Upside & Downside Scenarios to $32.75 Valuation on July 8, 2011
eBay’s transaction take rate has actually increased over the last few years and the company may be able to limit the negative impact of the factors we believe will influence the take rate …
- Google Rivals Scoop up Nortel Patents in High Stakes IP Tussle on July 7, 2011
The issue for Google is that if it doesn’t agree to license the wireless patents held by competitors, it could find itself mired by patent lawsuits …
Apple’s global mobile phone market share was around 3% as of 2010. A low cost contract-free iPhone presents Apple with a huge opportunity to expand its market share …
- Pandora’s Enemy at the Gates: Spotify Comes to the U.S. on July 7, 2011
The resulting competition for user listening hours can result in more than 10% downside risk to our already conservative estimates for Pandora’s stock …
- A Cheaper iPhone Could Spell Disaster for Nokia on July 7, 2011
Nokia’s stock price has taken a beating during the last few months having declined from around $10.20 at of the beginning of the year to around $6.30 today. The cheaper iPhone could exacerbate this decline …
While iPhone sales declined significantly in Q2 2008 compared to Q1 of same year, they increased by significant amount for corresponding periods in 2009 …
- SAP Upside & Downside Scenarios to $64 Stock Value on July 7, 2011
We estimate that SAP’s share in ERP market has declined from around 29% in 2005 to around 27% in 2010 and we expect it to decline further …
If Apple ends up winning this lawsuit, it will not only gain a one time amount from Samsung for the past devices sales, but it also could negotiate royalty payments from Samsung …
Although Google+ is still in beta phase, many users reckon that it can be a serious FaceBook competitor and Hangout is one of the most talked about unique features of Google+ …
- Salesforce’s Stock Needs to Hit Reverse Though Chatter Integration with CA Lifts Shares on July 6, 2011
Though Chatter itself comprises only about 2% of the Trefis price estimate for Salesforce.com stock, increasing adoption of Chatter by enterprises could provide upselling opportunities to Salesforce.com …
- Nokia’s Price Cuts Seen as Deperate by Mr. Market on July 6, 2011
The Reuters report also states that although these are not very big cuts per model, the breadth of products receiving price cuts has not been seen for some time …
- Netflix Sambas into Latin America Lifting Shares on July 6, 2011
While the potential market opportunity is large, there could limitations from poor broadband quality and low per capita income in the region that might could reduce the near-term adoption …
- Expedia Eyes $30.60 by Earning More Euros with Expansion on July 6, 2011
The European lodging industry is dominated by small, independent hotels unlike the U.S. where hotel chains are more prevalent. This makes TravelAds a more compelling proposition to European travel service providers …
Baidu, the most popular Chinese search engine with over 83% of the market, has been the dominant player in the Chinese search landscape for years …
- Oracle’s Upside to $37 Value from Google Patent Lawsuit on July 6, 2011
The latest filing by Oracle reveals that Oracle is demanding $900 million to $1.4 billion up front as well as 15% of the advertising revenue that Google earns from advertising on phones that run the Android OS …
- Why RIM Would Throw in the Towel on Playbook on July 6, 2011
Given RIM’s struggle so far to counter the iPhone and iPad, shoring up its core BlackBerry offering with a “super” phone makes sense …
So the market was looking at how much these patents could be worth based on the Nortel auction, which could have been inflated for competitive reasons …
- Catalysts Behind Dish’s Move Last Week on July 5, 2011
Last week also Dish also received approval for its $1.4 billion bid for DBSD North America, and it’s getting close to acquiring TerreStar …
- Chuck Gives Clients a Voice to Gain New Ones – Stock to $19.60 on July 5, 2011
Charles Schwab recently announced a new service called Clients Speak that allows customers to publicly rate Scwhab’s online services and write detailed reviews …
- ICANN Renewal Bumps Verisign Shares Higher on July 4, 2011
Although Verisign has been the exclusive provider for .com and .net domain names historically, this is nonetheless positive news for Verisign as it allows it to maintain registry rights from ICANN several more years …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive
- Selling More Chocolate in Emerging Makets Gets Kraft Past $36 on July 8, 2011
In order to strengthen its position in the lucrative global confectionery industry, Kraft acquired the British confectionery firm Cadbury for $18.9 billion …
- P&G Exploring Facebook Commerce, Stock Upside Limited on July 8, 2011
Firstly, being present on Facebook is more of a necessity for P&G since all other leading brands have similar pages dedicated to them …
- Drugstores Getting Smaller So Grandpa Can Get His Meds Faster on July 7, 2011
Pharmacies also have to sell general merchandise in addition to drugs to make up for high rental rates as well as shrinking margins on pharmaceutical drugs …
- Altria Group New Coverage: $27 Trefis Price Estimate on July 6, 2011
Altria’s Smokeless Tobacco products division occupies over 40% retail market share and has growth potential for this niche segment as industry volume are growing at over 7% annually …
The newly independent Philip Morris International sells tobacco products in the international markets while Altria maintains its operations in the US …
- Easing Cotton Prices Could Give Aeropostale’s Stock a Big Bounce on July 5, 2011
We believe that the cotton prices may not hold up to these levels in 2011 as the production numbers in the Asian countries stabilize during the year …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services
- Visa Upside & Downside Scenarios for $86 Valuation on July 7, 2011
If China decides to open up its market, we may witness a steep rise in transaction volumes for Visa which can reach 120 billion by 2017 …
- Soon to be German NYSE Leads the Battle of Tech IPOs on July 7, 2011
NYSE has been extremely aggressive in marketing its service offerings recently – putting in a lot of effort to meet with companies in the Silicon Valley to discuss potential listings …
- Goldman’s Expansion in Metal Warehousing Paying Off on July 7, 2011
Goldman charges 42 cents to store a metric ton of aluminum in its facilities for a day, which translates into $150 in annual revenues for every metric ton it stores …
- AmEx Embraces Social Networking with Foursquare Partnership on July 6, 2011
The new partnership will allow users to link an American Express card with their Foursquare account allowing users to take advantage of special offers by paying with their AmEx cards …
- CME’s Expanded Options Offerings Help Stock Reach $320 on July 6, 2011
The short term gold options contracts will help market participants manage risks associated with economic data pertaining to governments, world events and other market-moving factors better …
- Barclays Headed to $18.30 Despite UK Payment Protection Payouts on July 6, 2011
Barclays became the second bank after the Lloyds Banking group (NYSE:LYG) to settle this dispute by having a “no questions asked” settlement to all its customers who made a PPI complaint before April 20 this year …
- Juicy Derivatives Margins Make Goldman a $164 Stock on July 5, 2011
Goldman Sachs spent $1.3 billion in Q1 2011 on issues that included the overhaul in financial regulation. Its lobbying efforts were also directed at the CFTC according to its disclosures …
- Visa Jumps on Fed’s Fee Caps, Upside Muted for Now on July 5, 2011
The Federal Reserve voted to cap the swipe fees at 21 cents per transaction vs. the original plan that called for a 12 cents fees cap the Fed proposed in December last year …
- JPMorgan Marches to $45 Stepping on BoA’s & Wells’ Toes on July 5, 2011
JPMorgan’s approach is in stark contrast to Bank of America’s which plans to close 10% of its branches as mobile and Internet banking have reduced the need to have a branch on every corner of the city …
- Financial Sector Updates – (AIG, BAC, MA, V) on July 4, 2011
AIG will face costs of about $500 million from U.S. storms in April and May that are likely to pressure property- and-casualty margins in the second quarter, according to Jimmy Bhullar, an analyst at JPMorgan …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources
First Solar’s share price saw a steady decline from a $170 high in February to less than $120 last month due to concerns about the company’s ability to sell its products at the rate it is producing them …
BP botched deal with Rosneft to gain access to the lucrative Arctic shelf was a move that opposed the interest of the Alfa-Access-Renova (AAR) consortium …
- SunPower Building N. America’s Biggest Solar Roof in New Jersey on July 6, 2011
The rooftop installation will need 27,528 photovoltaic rooftop solar panels from SunPower, with a power generation capacity of 9 megawatt (MW) …
- Loan Guarantees Help First Solar Shares Beam Higher on July 5, 2011
The US is expected to be the single largest market for First Solar’s products in the years to come – surpassing Germany which has contributed most to the company’s sales in recent years …
- Rogers Sticking with Latam as Duke’s Stock Powers Higher on July 4, 2011
The story added that Duke might consider an outright sale of assets to GDF Suez or could form a joint venture and sell 60-70% to GDF Suez …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Basic Materials
- 3 Key Trends Impacting Dow Chemicals $45 Value on July 8, 2011
Multi-billion dollar stimulus packages introduced by the Chinese government for developing infrastructure should boost specialty chemical demand for construction chemicals …
- Barrick Worth $59 as JV in Pakistan Approved on July 5, 2011
There is close to 5.9 billion tons of mineral deposits in the region with an average copper grade of 0.41% and gold grade of 0.22 grams a tonne …
- Rio Digs for Aussie Coal on Way to $97 on July 5, 2011
The project, located at Mt Hillalong, is an advanced exploration target, located 22 kilometers to the west of Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek mine that produces close to 6 million tons of coking coal annually …
- Newmont Sparkles at $78 Despite Indonesia Probe on July 5, 2011
For Newmont, the lower ore grades have been a cause of concern as the company faced production losses at the Boddington mine last year …
- Indonesian Mine Workers’ Strike Surprises Freeport on July 4, 2011
The mining giant received yet another setback from its crown-jewel, the Indonesian Glasberg mine, when 8,000 mine workers started a 7-day strike …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation
- CSX Corp. Coverage Launch: $32 Trefis Price Estimate on July 8, 2011
Export coal freight is a very profitable segment of CSX due to its highly efficient unit train configurations and longer than average lengths of haul …
- How Kinder Morgan Partners Gasses up to $89 on July 8, 2011
If demand for natural gas surges further, pushing up the annual natural gas shipments to 4,200 billion cubic feet during 2012, there could be potential upside of 5-6% to the Trefis price estimate …
- Norfolk Southern Corp. Launch: $84 Trefis Price Estimate on July 7, 2011
Coal freight service of Norfolk Southern consists of transportation of coal and petroleum coke and accounts for the highest share of Norfolk Southern total freight volume …
KMP competes with interstate and intrastate pipelines and their shippers for attachments to new markets and supplies as well as for transportation, processing and treating services …
The total volume levels for 2010 including carloads and intermodal units are still below 2008 levels and so we believe railroads have further opportunities for volume growth …