Trefis Week in Review
The Week in Review
Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.
Insights from the Week
- Down 10% This Year, Will Gen AI Tools Help Apple Stock Recover?
- Down 5% Over The Last Month, Will Strong iPhone Sales Help Apple Offset Mac Headwinds In Q1?
- After Over A 40% Rally In 2023, Will Antitrust And iPhone Issues Hurt Apple Stock?
- Up 45% Since The Beginning Of 2023, Where Is Apple Stock Headed?
- Up 34% This Year, Will Apple Stock Rally Further Following Q4 Results?
- Will New iPhones Help Apple Stock Offset A China Slump?
Technology Media & Telecom
- Upside & Downside Scenarios for Pandora on June 17, 2011
Interesting a mix of advertising option on Pandora, higher user interaction in Pandora ads and its expansion in to other territories could make Pandora attractive for an increasing number of businesses …
- Sizing up the Impact of AMD’s Llano Release on June 17, 2011
A significant increase in battery life with Llano along with AMD’s command over graphics could create solid demand for the new chips and pose competition for Intel’s Sandy Bridge processors …
- Expedia Loses Eurostar To Orbitz on June 17, 2011
Given the sizable passenger traffic, Eurostar is touted to be one of the top-five private label contracts available in the booming European travel market …
- Dish Bids $1.4 B for TerreStar to Gain Broadband Spectrum on June 17, 2011
Dish is trying to spend cash on assets which it can get on the cheap that are often in bankruptcy and being sold as distressed prices. It’s also securing assets that would help it launch a competitive data and/or voice service in the future …
- Report on Cord Cutting Unfairly Points Finger at Netflix on June 17, 2011
The report openly states that the majority of those planning to cancel cited economic reasons, which could have nothing to do with Netflix altogether as these users could have cancelled cable anyway …
- Oracle Earnings Preview: What We’re Watching on June 17, 2011
In the upcoming earnings release, we will look to see what Oracle has to say on the profitability front as well listen for updates on how its Exadata and Exalogic products are faring in the market …
- AT&T to Return Overbilled Taxes to Customers on June 17, 2011
AT&T will look for tax refunds from these authorities and return them to customers. It seems like it may not owe anything from its own pocket making the financial risk minimal …
- Will T-Mobile Tactics Diminish Sprint’s Opportunity? on June 16, 2011
Given that Sprint’s offer is about to end this month and T-Mobile just recently started its offer, the negative impact on Sprint from time overlap will be minimal. In addition to this let’s take a quick look at the mechanics …
- Google Acquires Admeld to Boost Display Ad Business on June 16, 2011
Google depends heavily on search advertising business and hence would ideally want to diversify its business by increasing its presence in the display ad market …
- OpenTable Gives Restaurants Another Reason to Hop on Board on June 16, 2011
OpenTable has focused on consolidating its position in North America, and boasts of more than 14,500 restaurant customers in the region …
- Pandora Not Yet a Sirius Threat on June 16, 2011
Where it is stepping on Sirius’s toes is by developing relationships with auto manufacturers to develop applications that will sync Pandora with a car’s stereo systems …
- Verizon Asking for Rare Spectrum Swap on June 16, 2011
Since Verizon already has country-wide coverage and is making good progress in deploying LTE, the logical thing to do is improve the quality of the network in its footprint …
- Expedia’s Reward Points Program Adds up to Peanuts on June 16, 2011
These reward points are in addition to those offered by the loyalty programs run by airlines, hotel chains and credit card companies, and can be redeemed for discounts on subsequent future bookings on Expedia …
- Trefis Valuation of Pandora at $1.8 Billion on June 15, 2011
As of April 2011, Pandora had over 90 million registered users and is adding a new registered user almost every second. Pandora has over 50% market share in Internet radio listening time among the top 20 stations and networks in the United States …
- Monster Needs Uncle Sam to Start Hiring to Drive Growth on June 14, 2011
We believe that Monster will be able to turn around its job posting declines in the near to medium-term. Monster will certainly need help from federal government if it wants to achieve this …
- Apple iMessage to Take on RIM’s Blackberry Messenger on June 14, 2011
RIM has also been losing market share in the U.S. smartphone market for the last few months with smartphones based on Google Android and Apple iPhone the main beneficiaries …
- Does Apple’s iCloud Hold Promise for Akamai? on June 14, 2011
General weakness in the stock market recently due to macro issues has some concerned on overall consumer spending, including media and so discount the impact of iCloud spending …
- Dell Targets High Growth Storage Market on June 14, 2011
The addition of NAS capabilities to its EqualLogic line is a big deal in terms of helping its channel partners better compete with EMC and NetApp, the mainstays of the NAS market with a combined share of ~80% …
- Nvidia’s Tegra 2 Highlighted at Computex on June 14, 2011
As GPU sales contribute just about 20% to Nvidia’s stock according to our estimates, we don’t expect a shift to tablets to negatively impact Nvidia’s value …
- RIM Acquires Scoreloop to Attract Developers on June 14, 2011
RIM desperately needs some innovative measures to overcome competition and spur investor confidence in order to boost its stock, and Scoreloop could be one of these moves …
By bringing everything together, IBM aims to make these technologies more affordable and easier to deploy for cities, especially as many states and cities are struggling with budget constraints …
- RIM Earnings Preview: What We’re Watching on June 13, 2011
We believe that the key factors to look at from the upcoming RIM’s earnings release will be the revenue and gross margins outlook for the rest of 2011 …
- Intel, AMD & Akamai Could Gain from Cloud Insecurity on June 13, 2011
These recent high-profile attacks demonstrate a severe need for better security systems for cloud services. If Intel can do this well with McAfee, it would bode well for the rest of its chip business …
SkyMiles members will earn two miles for every dollar spent on hotel bookings over Agoda.com, in addition to Agoda Reward Points worth 4% of the price of the stay …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive
- Wal-Mart Invests in Chinese e-commerce Market on June 17, 2011
According to iResearch, a Shanghai-based firm that tracks web developments, online commerce reached just over $38 billion in 2009, up nearly 94% from 2008 …
- Home Depot Focusing on Web-Based Sales on June 17, 2011
The number of new stores added is expected to decline dramatically to around 10 outlets in 2011, as the firm embarks on a $1.1 billion program aimed at improving its online arm and supply chain …
- Walgreens Q3 Earnings: What We’re Watching on June 17, 2011
Walgreens’ average OTC drugs and general merchandise sale per square foot of retail space has been declining consistently from $293 in 2007 to $282 by 2010 ….
- Unilever CEO Expects to Catch P&G in 5 Years on June 16, 2011
Unilever closed 2010 with over $58 billion in sales while P&G’s revenues were a little under $80 billion. Even with a conservative growth rate of 4%, P&G’s revenues by 2015 can be expected to be over $97 billion …
- P&G’s Delay Increases Risk for Tide Pods Launch on June 16, 2011
But a huge $150 million marketing budget allocated for Tide Pods’ launch could be a waste if it could not meet the potential demand, which is one of the reasons the company cited for the delay …
- India is Driving Kraft’s Growth in Asia-Pacific on June 15, 2011
Kraft India’s success is mainly attributed to its decentralized model where country heads can invest in sales, infrastructure, advertising and promotions according to their specifications …
- Is it Time for P&G to Offload Duracell? on June 15, 2011
The growth prospects of Duracell are limited since the emerging markets, which are characterized by high economic growth are dominated by inferior but significantly cheaper substitutes, especially from Asia …
- CFO Comments Spark Sellers in Abercrombie & Fitch on June 14, 2011
The high levels of unemployment has led families to reign in spending on premium brands and has made companies offer discounts or promotionals to clear their excess inventory …
- Target Doubles Budget for its Canada Expansion on June 14, 2011
Target plans to renovate sites, establish supply chain capabilities, and build information-technology infrastructure. It will open the majority of its planned 100 to 150 Canadian stores in 2013 …
Lowe’s plans to cut down on store expansion expenditures is in line with its decision last year to pay back more cash to its shareholders thorough higher dividends and share buy backs …
Revlon’s sales further grew by an impressive 9% (7% organic, excluding FX gains) in Q1 2011 hinting at momentum continuing in the near future …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services
- Gauging The Impact of Dodd-Frank on the ‘Too Big to Fail” on June 17, 2011
In an attempt to reduce the need for such interventions in the future and to formalize the process of handling such cases of large scale financial bankruptcies, the Dodd-Frank Act was signed into law about a year ago …
- Deutsche Bank Offers Currency ETFs for Exchange Rate Hedging on June 16, 2011
With the dollar declining at approximately 5% every year from 2002 to 2008, these investors benefited as their dollar converted returns increased …
- Derivatives Trading is NYSE Euronext’s Growth Engine on June 16, 2011
When compared to the 41 million interest-rate contracts that CME has at its clearinghouse, NYSE doesn’t seem to pose much of a threat to CME by targeting a million contracts in the next six months …
The withdrawal of government incentive for permanent loan modifications could lead to higher foreclosure in the future as well as higher provisions for credit losses as banks find less of an incentive to modify troubled home loans …
- MasterCard to Explore Mobile Payment Technology with ANZ on June 15, 2011
The company has already started conducting trials of its PayPass contactless payment technology which will allow participants to use their mobile phone to make purchases of up to $80 …
- Senate Rejects Delay on Swipe-Fee Cap on June 15, 2011
The cap on swipe-fee will put pressure on assessment fee that Visa charges card issuing banks. We estimate that the assessment fee will drop to 0.078% from its current value of 0.093% once the cap on swipe fee is implemented …
- Ameritrade Records Declining Trade Volume for 3rd Consecutive Month on June 13, 2011
This period also saw significant macro-economic changes, including ongoing unrest in oil-producing countries and the Japanese disaster to name a few, which indicate ample opportunities for short-term trades …
- Ameritrade’s MMDAs Add Significant Value to Stock on June 13, 2011
As the company grows its customer base with more and more investors using the Ameritrade platform, we believe that the company’s biggest source of income will continue to be the interest it earns on its money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) …
- Visa Furthers Mobile Banking Push by Acquiring Fundamo on June 13, 2011
Fundamo’s mobile financial services platform enables the delivery of mobile financial services to unbanked and under-banked consumers around the world …
- Gauging the Impact of Tornadoes on Hartford Financial on June 13, 2011
Assuming that the insurance companies will bear losses according to their respective market share, The Hartford’s losses could be anywhere between $50 million to $120 million …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources
- New Discoveries to Lift Anadarko’s Gas Production on June 17, 2011
Anadarko has already invested about $750 million in exploring the region, which may increase to $3 billion by 2013. This is expected to further boost investments to $15 billion by 2018 …
- Chesapeake Adding Natural Gas and Alternatives to Power Rigs on June 16, 2011
Chesapeake is looking at natural gas as a potential energy source to fuel its rigs due to the cost benefits and the environment friendly nature of the fuel …
- Cliffs Announces Outlook Post-Twister for Acquired Operations on June 15, 2011
Cliffs can claim production for seven-and-a-half months for 2011, and so this is expected to result in sales of about 4.8 million tons of iron ore for the company’s North American iron ore division …
- Exxon Makes Major Deepwater Find in the Gulf of Mexico on June 15, 2011
The company claims that this is one of the largest discoveries in the region over the last decade and would add more than 700 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalents to the company’s reserves …
- Suntech’s PV Module Shipments Could Triple Over Next 5 Years on June 13, 2011
Demand for solar components is expected to continue to be driven by reducing average selling prices (ASP) of these components due to the combined effects of government subsidies and competitive pressures …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation
- Schlumberger & Others to Gain from Iraq’s Oil Output Expansion on June 16, 2011
The EIA estimates that Iraq’s reserves may be much larger than the present figure as about 90% of the country remain unexplored and the oil industry in the country has been severely hampered by years of sanctions and infrastructure bottlenecks …
- Norway Sends Transocean to the Arctic as Production Declines on June 15, 2011
The oil industry contributes to 25% of the country’s GDP and to keep the sector from declining; the government of Norway is encouraging offshore explorations in its northern territories …
- New Coverage Baker Hughes: $89 Trefis Price Estimate on June 15, 2011
We recently launched coverage on Baker Hughes with a near $89 price estimate for the company’s stock, which is about a 30% premium over its current trading price …
Summaries of Trefis Members’ Recent Forecasts
- Alcoa Shines on Solid Aluminum Demand on June 16, 2011
Given the unique characteristics of aluminum and its growing demand, we expect Alcoa’s alumina shipments will rise to 21 million tons by the end of our forecast period …
- Bright Outlook for SunPower Solar Components Shipments on June 14, 2011
If SunPower can develop technology that allows more electricity to be produced using less land for less money, then solar power will become more competitive …
- HP’s Converged Systems Speed up IT Deployment & Cost Less on June 13, 2011
The “converged infrastructure” architecture emphasizes interoperability, virtualization and common management platforms – which are key to HP’s cloud strategy …