MySQL Adds Little to Oracle’s Stock Price or Database Market Share

January 6th, 2011 by Trefis Team
+13.05%
Upside
115
Market
130
Trefis
ORCL: Oracle logo
ORCL
Oracle

Oracle’s (NASDAQ:ORCL) database software market share has increased from near 47% in 2005 to around 49% in 2009, based on Gartner estimates. Database software is used by Internet sites like Facebook, MySpace and YouTube, as well as by retailers like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) who have huge data maintenance needs. Oracle competes primarily with Sybase (NYSE:SY), SAP (NYSE:SAP), IBM’s (NYSE:IBM) DB2 and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) SQL server.

We expect Oracle’s share in database software market will continue rising gradually to around 53% by the end of Trefis forecast period led by its strong software features and incrementally from MySQL, and we currently have a Trefis price estimate of $35.98 for Oracle’s stock, about 14% above the current market price of $31.64.

Relevant Articles
  1. Up 11% In The Last Trading Session, What To Expect From Oracle Stock?
  2. Up 6% YTD, What To Expect From Oracle Stock In Q3?
  3. Oracle Stock To Top The Consensus In Q3?
  4. Oracle To Edge Past The Street Expectations In Q2?
  5. What To Expect From Oracle Stock?
  6. Oracle Stock To Beat The Consensus In Q4?

Oracle’s Database Features Are Strong…

Oracle has continuously improved its database design and has added a number of features on a consistent basis. Some of the advantages that Oracle has over its competitors are: faster data retrieval speed, minimum storage requirement with advanced data compression and partitioning technique, scalable on most of the operating systems, and full protection from server failure and disaster.

… But Contribution of MySQL to Oracle Will be Limited

Oracle is likely to have only marginal benefits to its market share through new MySQL database licenses after the acquisition of Sun Microsystems. This is because although MySQL has more than 20% of database installations worldwide, it still has a low market share of 1% in the global database market. The reason being it’s an open source solution and also charges a low fee to its customers. There is speculation that Oracle may kill MySQL as an open source solution by attempting to transition MySQL’s commercial customers to its existing line of database products.

Trefis Community Forecast

The Trefis community expects that Oracle’s share in database software market will increase from near 53%% in 2010 to around 60% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 50% to 53% during the same period. The member estimates imply an upside of almost 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Oracle’s stock.

Our complete analysis for Oracle’s stock is here.

Visit our home page at trefis.com for details on how to win a free iPad.