Ford Car Share in North America On the Rise

Ford (NYSE:F) is recovering strongly from the global economic recession that affected the world in 2008-2009. The company’s share in the North America car market has started to rise gradually after declining in 2007. We expect this growth momentum to continue going forward, driven by factors like the “One Ford” strategy that the company has adopted to streamline its costs.

The rise in market share in North America comes at the expense of competitors like Daimler (NYSE:DAI), Honda (NYSE:HMC) and Toyota (NYSE:TM). Our current Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock is $14, in line with the current market price.

Focus on smaller and more fuel efficient cars

Ford’s market share in North America declined from an estimated 10.5% in 2005 to 8.5% in 2008, and then rose to 9.7% in 2009. [1] Consumers are increasingly moving toward smaller, more environmentally friendly and fuel efficient cars due to rising oil prices and concerns of global warming. We expect this shift to boost sales of small cars in North America. Ford, in particular, is moving toward smaller and more fuel efficient cars from larger SUVs and trucks. The company plans to invest roughly $14 billion in the U.S. on advanced technologies to improve fuel efficiency by over 25% [2].

Ford is concentrating on developing a new business and advertising model under the vision of “One Ford”. The purpose of this is to downsize regional brands, thereby reducing costs, and launching new Ford vehicles globally with better advertising and marketing programs. In addition, the aim of this slogan is to build cars that will appeal to both American and European consumers by using a common design theme.

Ford is also trying to drive car sales by offering competitive pricing and incentives such as cash rebates and zero-percent financing to win over customers from other competitors such as Toyota.

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Ford’s Market Share in North America indicate an increase from 11.6% in 2010 to 13% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 11.4% in 2010 to 12.6% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to its market share in North America.

Our complete analysis for Ford’s stock is here.

Notes:

1. Ford Car Market Share in North America is calculated as: Number of Ford Branded Cars Sold in North America / North American Car Sales. The information on sales mix by brands for different geographies is available in Ford’s annual report. Data on North America Car Sales is available in the filings on Ford Website.

2. Written Testimony of Allan Mulally, President & CEO of Ford.