How Will Ford Perform?
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock over the last week: (1) Ford International Market Share and (2) Ford Car Market Share in North America. The member forecasts suggest that Ford International Market Share will trend in line, while Ford Car Market Share in North America will trend above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Ford (NYSE:F) competes with other automotive companies like Daimler AG (NYSE:DAI), Toyota NYSE:TM) and Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $14 for Ford’s stock, about 10% above the current market price of around $13.
We estimate that Ford Cars & Trucks sold internationally constitute 39% of the $14 Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock. By comparison, Ford Cars North America accounts for 12%. Ford’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Ford International Market Share and (2) Ford Car Market Share in North America. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
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1. Ford International Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Ford International Market Share in North America are in line with our estimates. The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from 5% in 2010 to 6% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, Ford International Market Share has decreased from 5.5% in 2005 to 5% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford International Market Share.
Our complete analysis for Ford International Market Share is here.
2. Ford Car Market Share in North America
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Ford Car Market Share in North America indicate an increase from around 12% in 2010 to around 14% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 11% in 2010 to around 13% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock. In the past, Ford Car Market Share in North America has decreased from 10.5% in 2005 to close to 10% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford Car Market Share in North America.