20%+ Upside to NYT from Higher Revenue per Page & Unique Visitors for NYTimes.com
The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) competes with Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and AOL (NYSE:AOL) in the online advertising business. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $11 for New York Times’ stock, about 30% above the current market price of close to $9.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of New York Times’s\ (NYSE:NYT) stock over the last week: (1) NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) and (2) Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month. The members’ forecasts suggest that NYTimes.com RPM as well as Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month will trend above the Trefis estimate. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 23% for the NYT stock.
NY Times & International Herald Tribune (IHT) Online Ads & Other constitute around 21% of the $11 Trefis price estimate for New York Times’s stock. Hence the stock is quite sensitive to (1) NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) and (2) Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
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1. NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM)
The average of forecasts for NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around $7 per 1,000 in 2010 to $8 per 1,000 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $4 per 1,000 in 2010 to $4.50 per 1,000 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 21% to the Trefis price estimate for New York Times’s stock. In the past, NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) has decreased from $6 per 1,000 in 2006 to around $4 per 1,000 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of New York Times’s stock to NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM).
Our complete analysis for NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) is here.
2. Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month
The average of forecasts for Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around 37 million in 2010 to around 65 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 34 million in 2010 to around 60 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for New York Times’s stock. In the past, Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month has increased from 15.5 million in 2006 to 27.5 million in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of New York Times’s stock to Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month.