Trefis Members More Conservative on iPad Sales and Apple Upside

+4.02%
Upside
171
Market
178
Trefis
AAPL: Apple logo
AAPL
Apple

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $337 for Apple’s stock, about 30% above the current market price of $259. Trefis members have created forecasts for two drivers of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock over the last week: (1) iPad Pricing and (2) iPad Units Sales. Their forecasts suggest that iPad Pricing will trend higher, while iPad Units Sales will trend lower than the Trefis forecast. These projections suggest a combined upside of only 1% for Apple’s stock.

The iPad constitutes only 8% of the $337 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock, versus the iPhone’s 50%. The iPad competes with devices like Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Kindle, Sony Corporation’s (NYSE:SNE) e-reader, and mobile devices from HP (NYSE:HPQ).

Given that the iPad accounts for small portion of Apple’s overall business, the stock is not very sensitive to (1) iPad Pricing and (2) iPad Units Sales. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

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1. iPad Pricing

The average of forecasts for iPad Pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from $608 in 2010 to $475 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $600 in 2010 to $441 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to iPad Pricing.

Our complete analysis for iPad Pricing is here.

2. iPad Units Sales

The average of forecasts for iPad Units Sales created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 6.9 million in 2010 to 21 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 10 million in 2010 to nearly 29 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period.  The member estimates imply a downside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to iPad Units Sales.

Our complete analysis for Apple’s stock is here.