Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), with their well-known iPhone and BlackBerry mobile phones, have seen their shares in the global mobile phone market increase over the last few years at the expense of other mobile phone makers such as Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT).
However, RIM’s market share lead over Apple has been shrinking and we estimate that Apple will be able to overtake RIM market share by early 2011.
Below we explain the significance of mobile phones business for Apple and RIM, and why we think Apple will overtake RIM mobile phones market share in the near future.
Mobile phones more than 50% of Apple and RIM stock
We estimate that the mobile phone business constitutes about 52% of the $267 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock and about 50% of the $77 Trefis price estimate for RIM’s stock. Mobile phone market share is a crucial driver of value for Apple and RIM. You can modify our forecasts below to see how sensitive the Trefis price estimates for Apple and RIM are to future market shares.
Apple to Overtake RIM in Mobile Phones Market Share
Apple has increased its mobile phone market share from 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009, while RIM mobile phone market share increased from 1% to about 3% during the same period. We expect Apple’s market share to overtake that of RIM by 2011, and for Apple and RIM to have 11% and 8% market share, respectively, by the end of Trefis forecast period. We believe sales of the iPhone will eventually outpace BlackBerry sales for the following reasons:
1. Apple’s ecosystem of consumer products (Macs, iPad, Apple TV) and services (iTunes, iPhone apps) make the iPhone a more attractive phone for many consumers compared to the BlackBerry
2. End of AT&T exclusivity will give Apple’s iPhone wider distribution in the US (comparable to BlackBerry distribution)
3. iPhone is making inroads with business customers that have traditionally preferred the BlackBerry
For additional analysis and forecasts, here are our complete models for Apple and RIM.
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Anything is possible but your analysis presumes that RIM stays static in phone competition. First RIM has very talented engineers that are top in the industry. They have impressive patents with new ones coming out all the time.
Second RIM is growing on a world wide basis particularly where USA products are not popular nor allowed by the local govt or customs. For example Blackberry is the phone of choice in Indonesia which is a huge population. In Muslim countries it prevails. Blackberry will outperform in India and Pakistan.
Third RIM take share from Nokia even when Apple increases share.
Lastly Palm and Motorola have become non factors. Who knows what Microsoft can finally do az it’s phone OS won’t out until late this year. They have so much catch up to do
RIM will be bought out by Microsoft or Dell or HP or some other IT company.
[...] in the lead but that gap is shrinking and it is estimated that Apple will be in the lead by 2011. – http://www.trefis.com/articles/12219/iphone-could-overtake-blackberry-market-share-in-2011/2010-03-0... addthis_url = [...]
[...] BlackBerry Market share going to iPhone in 2011. Research in Motion has been in the lead but that gap is shrinking and it is estimated that Apple will be in the lead by 2011. – http://www.trefis.com/articles/12219/iphone-could-overtake-blackberry-market-share-in-2011/2010-03-0... [...]
[...] iPhone Could Overtake BlackBerry Market Share in 2011 « Note of … [...]
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[...] BlackBerry Market share going to iPhone in 2011. Research in Motion has been in the lead but that gap is shrinking and it is estimated that Apple will be in the lead by 2011. – http://www.trefis.com/articles/12219/iphone-could-overtake-blackberry-market-share-in-2011/2010-03-0... [...]
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[...] BlackBerry Market share going to iPhone in 2011. Research in Motion has been in the lead but that gap is shrinking and it is estimated that Apple will be in the lead by 2011. – http://www.trefis.com/articles/12219/iphone-could-overtake-blackberry-market-share-in-2011/2010-03-0... [...]
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[...] iPhone Could Overtake BlackBerry Market Share in 2011 « Note of … [...]
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[...] BlackBerry Market share going to iPhone in 2011. Research in Motion has been in the lead but that gap is shrinking and it is estimated that Apple will be in the lead by 2011. – http://www.trefis.com/articles/12219/iphone-could-overtake-blackberry-market-share-in-2011/2010-03-0... [...]
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