Trefis Forecast: What % of Apple’s stock is the iPad?

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) recently announced the launch of its much awaited tablet PC, the iPad, which will place the company in greater competition with Kindle-maker Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).  We’ve updated our Apple analysis for the company’s recent earnings as well as the iPad announcement.  We now have a Trefis price estimate of $267 for Apple’s stock.

How much of Apple’s value do you think comes from the iPad?

A.  0.4%

B.  4%

C.  14%

D.  24%

E.  44%

Make a selection above to see the answer.

A Clue: iPad Unit Sales

We expect Apple to sell 4 million iPad units in 2010, which is double our 2010 forecast of 2 million Kindles sold by Amazon.  We expect iPad to maintain a lead over Amazon’s Kindle in terms of unit sales with 12 million iPads sold by the end of our forecast period compared to 10 million Kindles sold.

In comparison, we expect Apple to sell about 8.5 million Mac notebooks, 42 million iPhones and 48 million iPods in 2010.  Apple sold about 3.7 million iPhones in 2007 after the launch of the device in June of that year.  We estimate that the iPhone business constitutes more than 50% of Apple’s stock and that the Mac notebook business constitutes about 8% of Apple’s stock.

You can modify our forecasts for iPad Pricing, iPad Unit Sales and iPad Gross Profit Margin to see how Apple’s stock would be impacted in different scenarios.

For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for Apple’s stock.