We estimate that Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), which competes with smartphone makers like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), had 1% market share within the global mobile phone market in 2007 and that this increased to 2.9% market share in 2009.
We believe RIM’s mobile phone market share will continue to increase to over 8% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In comparison, Apple’s iPhone had a fraction of RIM’s mobile phone market share in 2007 and we estimate that both companies will have comparable market share in 2010. We believe that Apple’s iPhone market share will reach 15% by the end of our forecast period, almost double the expected share for RIM.
We estimate that each 1% change in RIM’s mobile phone market share by the end of our forecast period has about a $10 impact on the company’s stock. You can modify our forecast above to see how the $77 Trefis price estimate for RIM is impacted under different market share growth scenarios for RIM.
You can see our full RIM analysis (forecasts and rationale) here and can create your own price estimate for RIM using our forecast tools. You can find other Trefis articles on RIM and related companies here.
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by GuamGuy: RT @Mobile_Phone1: Featured Forecast: RIM’s BlackBerry Mobile Phone Market Share http://bit.ly/dt6QhV...